Bibi à Canossa

Bibi à Canossa

Uri Avnery est un vieux militant de la paix en Israël. Homme de toutes les audaces, établissant des contacts constants avec les Palestiniens, c’est un adversaire déterminé de la politique expansionniste et sioniste d’Israël. Ses appréciations sont le plus souvent baignées de froid réalisme devant cette politique israélienne et le soutien US à cette politique.

Son commentaire ici, ce 29 mars 2010 sur Antiwar.com, est d’autant plus intéressant parce qu’il nous expose que la situation des relations USA-Israël est à un tournant fondamental. Au regard de ses commentaires habituellement sceptiques, c’est une analyse d’autant plus importante à suivre. Aznery estime que la personnalité de Netanyahou, son arrogance, ses choix emportés, son assurance excessive et son mépris d’Obama, ainsi qu’un jugement politique erroné sur ce moment de la situation politique US, ont constitué le détonateur de la crise où ce même Netanyahou se trouve complètement pris au piège. Enfin, Aznery évoque un changement fondamental de la stratégie US qui, lui, est une circonstance structurelle capitale, largement documenté avec l’intervention de Petraeus, changement qui constitue l’arrière-plan puissant de cette évolution en cours.

«Netanyahu’s heart is with the American Right. His closest friends there are neoconservatives, right-wing Republicans, and evangelist preachers. It seems that these had assured him that Obama would lose the big battle for health care and would soon be a lame duck until inevitably losing the next presidential elections.

»t was a gamble, and Netanyahu lost.

»At the beginning of the crisis over construction in East Jerusalem, Netanyahu was still sure of himself. Obama’s people rebuked him, but not too severely. It seemed that the conflict would end like all the previous ones: Jerusalem would pay lip service, Washington would pretend that the spit was rain.

»A less arrogant person would have told himself: let’s not rush things. Let’s wait at home until it becomes clear who will win the health insurance battle. Then we shall think again and make a decision.

»But Netanyahu knew that he was assured an enthusiastic welcome at the AIPAC conference, and AIPAC, after all, rules Washington. Without thinking much, he flew there, made a speech, and harvested thunderous applause. Drunk with success, he waited for the meeting in the White House, where Obama was supposed to embrace him before the cameras.

»But in the meantime, something absolutely awful had happened: the health law was adopted by Congress. Obama won a victory that has been called “historic.” Netanyahu was not facing a beaten and beleaguered pope, but a Prince of the Church in all his splendor.

»According to an Israeli joke, the shortest unit in time is the moment between the light turning green and the driver behind you starting to honk. My late friend, Gen. Matti Peled, insisted that there was a shorter moment: the time it takes for a newly promoted officer to get used to his new rank. But it appears that there is an even shorter period of time.

»George Mitchell, the hopping mediator, handed Netanyahu Obama’s invitation to the White House. The cameras showed everything: Smiling from ear to ear, Mitchell extended his hand for the handshake, he even stretched out his other hand to hold Netanyahu’s arm. And then, the moment he thought that the cameras had stopped recording, the smile disappeared from his face at a dizzying speed, as if a mask had fallen, and a sour and angry expression appeared.

»If Netanyahu had perceived that moment, he would have been cautious from there on. But caution is not one of his most outstanding qualities.

[…]

»That is not just a “crisis” anymore. It is something really momentous: a basic change in the policy of the U.S. The American ship in the Middle East is making a large turn, and this is taking a long time. There have been many disappointments for peace-lovers on the way. But now it is happening at last.

»The president of the United States wants to end the conflict, which is threatening the vital national interests of the U.S. He wants a peace agreement. Not at the end of time, not in the next generation, but now, within two years.

[…]

»In order to enter into serious negotiations with the Palestinians, as demanded by Obama, Netanyahu will have to dismantle the existing coalition and invite Livni in. Until that happens, he will be left standing at the gate of Canossa.

»The struggle between the king and the pope did not end with the humiliating scene at Canossa. It went on for a long time. The battle between Netanyahu and Obama will be decided much more quickly.»

dedefensa.org